THE Australian Government’s commodities forecaster is predicting the country’s beef exports to slightly decrease as seasonal favourable seasonal conditions return to large parts of Southern Australia.
ABARES this week released its forecast report, predicting saleyard prices to increase with strong restocker demand and export volumes to decrease with lower turnoff.
The forecast is exporting beef production to decline by 9pc in 2025-26, with favourable seasonal conditions in Southern Australia pushing producers to hold onto cattle.
“However, continued high cattle availability in Queensland is forecast to partially offset the impact of herd rebuilding in southern regions on total cattle slaughter in 2025–26,” the report said.
While ABARES is expecting the value of beef exports and live exports to fall by 4pc this year, it is forecasting processor demand for domestic cattle to stay high.
“Beef export prices are forecast to increase 7pc to average $11.2/kg (shipped weight) in 2025–26, up from $10.5/kg in 2024–25 and 7pc above the 10-year average in real terms,” the report said.
“However, beef export prices are forecast to increase by less than the increase for the ABARES Saleyard Indicator Price for cattle in 2025–26, due to added restocker momentum in domestic markets.
“Live cattle export values are forecast to decline by 2% to $941 million in in 2025–26 driven mostly by a decline in the number of live beef feeder/slaughter cattle exports due to more favourable seasonal conditions in northern Queensland.”
Global demand for beef to remain high
While the commodities forecaster mentioned some uncertainty created by trade discussions with US president Donald Trump, it is expecting overall demand to remain high – particularly from the US.
“US demand for beef imports is forecast to remain high in 2025–26 reflecting expected lower domestic beef production outweighing pressure on consumption.
“Growth in aggregate household consumption is expected to face some pressure given subdued economic growth. US retail sale data for beef has remained strong to date, but beef prices are expected to increase further over 2025–26.
“Demand for Australian beef is forecast to be supported by favourable market access relative to competitors such as Brazil”
China
ABARES said while economic conditions have not improved in China, it was expecting favourable political conditions for Australian beef.
“China’s demand for beef imports in 2025–26 is forecast to decline due to challenging economic conditions for household spending (see Economic outlook) and an increase in both domestic pork and beef production.
“However, Australian beef exports are expected to continue to be supported as a significant number of US beef exporters have not had licenses renewed since expiring in March 2025.
“Australian beef exports to China reached the tariff-free import quota for 2025 in July, with additional exports subject to a 12% tariff for the remainder of the calendar year. However, Australian beef’s favourable reputation amongst large sectors of the population is expected to support demand in the face of greater supply from Brazil.”
- To read the full report click here