AUSTRALIANS are eating a smaller share of the nation’s overall annual beef production than ever before.

Booming beef exports are expected to occupy a record high 82 percent of overall Australian beef production in the current 2025-26 financial year.

The figure was buried deep within the mountains of data and statistics in the ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report released this week.

The previous record for exports as a proportion of overall beef production was set last financial year (2024-25) at 80pc. Prior to that, the percentage has never got past the high 70s.

Export % of beef production is based on ABS data on production and exports, with exports in shipped weight converted by ABARES to carcase weight equivalent.

Annual cattle slaughter and beef herd

Note: *Million head. ~Includes dairy cattle and calves. ^At 30 June. Data to the right of the dotted line are estimates and forecasts. Source: ABARES; ABS

ABARES forecast record for this year is based on two main impacts:

A large forecast fall in domestic Australian beef consumption in 2025–26, due to high beef prices and continued substitution towards cheaper protein options like chicken and pork.

However next year (2026-27) ABARES anticipates domestic beef consumption to remain relatively steady. Long-term, as in most developed countries, the Australian beef consumption trend has been a gradual decline.

The other key driver of the record export percentage of production forecast this year is in the high level of export activity.

Last calendar year saw export beef volume lift 20 percent on the previous year, hitting an all-time annual record of 1.545 million tonnes. That was built largely on vigorous international demand in North America, North Asia and elsewhere, and a national herd size above 30 million head, with growing lotfeeding operations adding to carcase weights and other factors.

In contrast, In 2021-22, during the low point in the production cycle as herd rebuilding took place after the 2019-20 drought, export percentage of beef produced slipped to a recent low of 72pc.

Longer term, exports have generally accounted for around 70-73pc of total Australian beef production, but have occasionally crept outside this range. The proportion of exports has gradually drifted higher since 2010-11 (68pc) and 2011-2013 (69pc). The impact of droughts in 2015 and again in 2019-20 pushed large numbers of female cattle to slaughter, lifting export percentage of all beef produced to 75pc and 78pc, respectively.

ABARES this week forecast beef exports in the current financial year ending 30 June to 1.6 million tonnes – another record – before declining a little to 1.5mt next year.

Beef production next financial year is forecast to fall by 6pc from its current-year record high of 2.75mt to 2.6mt (carcase weight) due to lower cattle availability. However next year’s figure will still be 18pc above the ten-year average.