CHINA has reported a significant outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in its Northwestern region, raising further questions about the nation’s beef supply in the second half of the year after 2026 imported beef quotas are reached.

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has reported an outbreak of SAT-1 strain FMD in herds of cattle in the northwestern provinces of Gansu and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

Authorities this week said the strain spreads easily, can cause major production losses and has a mortality rate of more than 50 percent in young cattle. SAT-1 spreads mainly through direct contact, but can also be transmitted by air, with airborne ⁠spread stronger than that seen in the more common A and O serotypes.

The disease outbreak could add levels of complexity in the Chinese beef market, where severe quota limitations have been placed on imports from most significant supplier countries this year.

Australia’s quota for China has been set at 205,000t, with 50pc of the quota already filled by 25 March – just 85 days into the quota year. Many expect Australia’s quota to be reached some time in May or early June.

Other significant beef supplier countries are also racing towards filling their 2026 quotas for China, raising questions about what happens for supply during the back half of the year.

While earlier reports suggested Brazil was advancing a quota management scheme for its 2026 China entitlement (about 1.1 million tonnes, down from last year’s trade of 1.33 mt), nothing has emerged, meaning Brazilian exporters, like those in Australia, are racing to fill their share before tariffs are imposed. Year-to-date Brazilian beef exports to China by the end of February had already totalled 372,083mt, representing 33.6pc of the country’s 2026 quota.

The Chinese government on Saturday confirmed diagnosis of serotype SAT1 FMD in 6229 cattle. Local governments in Xinjiang and Gansu implemented culling and disinfecting measures following the detections.

Industry analysts told Reuters that this was the first time the SAT-1 serotype has entered China and current domestic vaccines for ​the more common O and A serotypes offered no cross-protection against the new strain.

The SAT-1 ​serotype – an FMD variant endemic in Africa – has not previously been detected in China. Since 2025 SAT-1 has spread ⁠from Africa to parts of the Middle East, West Asia and South Asia.

Chinese authorities said the outbreak entered China ​via the northwest border, a region that joins Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia and other countries. Border provinces were ​ordered to step up patrols and prevent the disease entering through smuggling or illegal transport, according to official notices.

The outbreak comes ​as Russia battles its own severe FMD outbreak in the Siberian Novosibirsk region, which borders Kazakhstan, some 1200km from the Chinese outbreak.

Animal diseases have previously crossed into China from Russia, including African Swine Fever in 2018 and FMD serotype O in 2000 and 2014, Reuters reported.

Two vaccines targeting the SAT-1 strain have received emergency Chinese veterinary drug approvals.

China’s livestock sector has been grappling with ​falling meat prices, overcapacity and weak consumer demand, Reuters reported.

“If it is not controlled well, cattle prices could drop first and then rise again later as herd ​numbers fall,” an analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness told Reuters.

Some analysts have connected the recent collapse in Chinese domestic pork prices, driven by over-production of pork initiated in response to the ASF disease outbreak four years ago, as a possible contributing factor in this year’s decision by China to impose harsh quotas on import beef volumes, seeking to deflect consumer demand back from beef to pork.

Already large stockpiles of frozen pork are building up in warehouses, local media reports suggest.