THE mass exodus of cows and young cattle out of the parched regions of northern NSW and southern Queensland may be within weeks of being exhausted, supply chain livestock managers have told Beef Central this week.

Recent record yardings in selling centres from Dubbo north to Gunnedah and Tamworth now appear to have passed their peak, and several large multi-site, multi-state processors have said their phones have started to ring less frequently with offers of cattle out of dry areas.

Roma is yarding only 6000 today, down more than 2600 on last week, while Gunnedah’s yarding of 6000 this morning was down 1800 on last week (see saleyards summary at base of page).

Some say the current heavy turnoff cycle may now be within weeks of reaching its natural conclusion, especially as remaining pregnant cows get closer to calving.

“Producers in those impacted areas have now either found agistment and shifted north or south, or sold-down to processors or restockers, because they just didn’t get the break they needed four or five weeks ago,” one contact said. “There’s not a lot of cattle left in the impacted region to move,” he said.

Apart from cows heading to processing, large numbers of NSW cattle have headed into Queensland’s western regions and Channel Country, he said. Others (mostly young cattle) had gone into containment feeding programs, but with grain prices rising sharply to $420-$430/t delivered Downs, that option was now less attractive, especially with roughages becoming short in supply.

“There’s a lot of agisted or bought British-type cattle in the Channel Country and central west now, either backgrounder types or breeders,” one contact said. “They will keep them there now as long as they can, because winter’s going to be cruel on the New England, especially with no oats to feed,” he said.

Frosts have started in southern regions, but so far there have been little or no frost impact on pastures in Queensland, to speak of. Historically, first frosts inevitably spark some additional cattle turnoff, as pasture value starts to decline.

“If anything, Queensland is getting a long growing grass season, which is becoming a godsend for those relocated cattle from further south,” another processor contact said.

Next phase in cycle

So what happens once the big regional turnoff comes to an end?

Some of those relocated cattle now in the north would likely come forward for processing from September-October on, Beef Central was told.

Southern states processors who have been shopping closer to home more in recent weeks will again be forced to head north into Queensland in greater numbers to maintain production, another processor livestock contact said. That’s despite elevated freight rates of 50, 60 and even 70c/kg to get them home under current fuel/freight rates.

While the big price gap that existed earlier in direct consignment rates between southern Australia and Queensland has now narrowed somewhat, there simply aren’t the numbers of killable cattle available in southern areas to satisfy southern processor demand, Beef Central was told.

Back in early March, heavy cows were 80c/kg dearer in southern regions than in southern Queensland, but that gap has now narrowed to 50-60c in places.

More competition for available Queensland cattle may inject some upside in pricing, especially as winter cattle become hard to find in southern Australia.

Record kills

As evidenced by last week’s national kill hitting 11-year highs (see Friday’s report), export processors have been operating overtime to try to keep pace with the peak level of supply.

Plants all the way from Brooklyn in Victoria into southern Queensland have added additional shifts – either on an ad-hoc basis, or more permanently. Saturday shifts have become more common on both grass and grain cattle, while JBS Dinmore has gone to an extra weekday shift, adding an additional 1700 to its weekly tally.

Despite that, beef processing plants across large parts of eastern Australia are now heavily booked through until the late stages of May, and into June in some examples. One large southern NSW export processor told Beef Central his plant was now five to six weeks forward on bookings.

The big surge in supply and forward bookings continues to see some large export operators offer space bookings only at this stage, with prices to be negotiated with vendors closer to slaughter date.

The expansion in grainfed commitments, which tend to take priority over grass once they have completed their days-on-feed, has only added to congestion problems this year.

Grids continue to soften, 10-20c in places

Direct consignment slaughter grids have continued their sustained downwards trend this week, with further falls of 10-20c evident across Eastern Australia compared with our previous kill report a week ago.

In southern Queensland, grids since the start of March have now fallen 70-80c/kg (from 830c/kg) on four-tooth ox, and 80-90c/kg (from 750c) for heavy slaughter cows.

Best offers seen this morning for kills in southern Queensland (for held bookings, due to die in 3-4 weeks time) were 755c/kg for four-tooth heavy grass ox (765c for no HGP on some grids) and 660c/kg on heavy cows.

In Central Queensland, offers only a few weeks ago were only 10c/kg behind the southern parts of the state, but are now consistently 20c/kg behind, as local turnoff starts to gather momentum, with late May and early June bookings now loading up fast.

In southern states, best offers seen this morning include 830c/kg on grass ox and 730c in eastern parts of South Australia, down 15-20c, and 720c on cows (up to 760c available on MSA-type Angus cows at one site) and 820c on four-tooth grass ox in southern NSW, also down another 10-20c. Some southern NSW plants are currently not actively quoting, being will covered until the early stages of June.

Margins slimmer

Despite the falls in procurement costs, margins on grass cattle are not as attractive as they were earlier, due to higher production and logistics costs, processors say. Program business (grainfed) continued to provide the better of the net revenue/head, several large operators said.

Rises in the value of the Aussie dollar (US71.84c this morning) have also taken the edge off the revenue side of beef exports, with the currency lifting US2.6c over the past month to its highest level since 2022. A rising currency makes Australian beef more expensive for international customers.

Saleyards trends

Saleyards offerings early this week have been mostly down in size. Few sales were held yesterday due to ANZAC Day holiday in some states

Gunnedah sale yarded 6000 this morning, down 1800 on last week. A full field of buyers and an increase in restocker competition saw most categories improve, with young cattle to the trade 40c dearer. Prime grown steers to the processor reached 410c/kg while the prime grown heifers made it to 388c/kg. Score 2 and 3 cows to the processor were 10c dearer, with score 3s ranging from 255-325c/kg. Prime heavy cows were 5c cheaper making 286-336c to average 314c.

Wodonga sale yarded 1000 head this morning, up a little on earlier sales. Heavy steers and bullocks were scarce and trade cattle numbers improved slightly. Heavy feeder steers made from 440-508c/kg, while feeder heifers saw a price lift  of 39c with the better types making from 420-486c/kg. On the export side heavy steers and bullocks suitable for processors were few, the bulk making 380-486c/kg. Heavy cows were in reasonable numbers and most buyers operated, with prices easing 3c/kg. The bulk of the better heavy cows ranged from 326-356c/kg.

Warwick sale in southern Queensland yarded 1830 this morning, down 630 on last week. Cows again were in the largest numbers and sold to easier trends. An increased supply of young bullocks sold to dearer rates as did the  heavy and medium weight feeder cattle. Heavy yearling steers to feed sold from 400-450c/kg. Bullocks to processors sold from 410-425c/kg. Heavy score 2 cows to processors sold from 214-285c/kg. Good heavy cows sold from 273-325c/kg.

Roma yarded 6000 this morning, down 2600 on last week. In interim report (full details tomorrow) suggested a large number of cattle showed signs of the dry conditions, with the market regulated on quality. Yearling steers 400-480kg topped 446c to average 443c/kg to lotfeeders, while grown steers 500-600kg made from 387-410c/kg to processors. Bullocks + 600kg sold from 370-402c/kg. Cows were yet to sell.