AUSTRALIAN cattle prices are likely to hit their peak this month as the industry heads for a year of record beef production, according to the latest six-month outlook from StoneX market analyst Ripley Atkinson.
Ripley Atkinson
While the market has been relatively stable this year, cattle prices across the board have generally risen over the last quarter.
Dry weather in Victoria, South Australia and the southern half of New South Wales saw an early sell-off of cattle at the start of this year. A lack of cattle in the area now, particularly heavy cattle, has left big gaps to fill for lotfeeders and processors – who have been competing hard in the north over the past six weeks.
Northern Australia has largely been the opposite, with big numbers moving in the past three months on the back of consecutive good seasons.
Mr Atkinson said he was expecting prices in the second half of this year to go back to what they were in the first quarter of this year.
“Due to the strength of the 2025 season for northern Australia, the herd has been revised higher. The northern herd’s growth will offset the liquidation seen in the south due to drought,” Mr Atkinson said.
“Overall, the short- and medium-term outlook for the beef industry is positive across the board – although risks are prevalent. Namely the effect of an encroaching dry period on eastern Australia, potentially affecting capacity of feedlots and processors to handle sharp increases in cattle supply.”
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above average rainfall for most of Northern Australia in the next three months, which is traditionally the dry season.
Mr Atkinson said some forecasters were looking at a dry finish to the year, which was a risk to the market. He said a dry scenario was worth considering.
“At the end of the day there are plenty of cattle around and there is only a finite of amount of feedlot pen space and a finite amount of processing space,” he said.
“Feedlots are operating at capacity at present, with yards very full. Whilst processing throughput continues to grind higher, with the addition of extra shifts now playing a key role in maintaining slaughter rates.
“If feedlots and processors become overwhelmed – pricing stands to come under pressure as buyers look to fend off supply.”
Two speed market to continue
The dry season in the south and good season in the north has created two speeds in the cattle market, with prices rising in the south and staying steady in the north.
Rain has started to fall in some dry parts of Southern NSW and Victoria and there is the possibility that conditions will improve with warmer weather in Spring.
“Upside exists particularly in southern markets as producer demand spurs pricing due to lower supplies and improved confidence as a potential rebuild opportunity arises,” Mr Atkinson said.
“A two-speed market similar to supply looks most likely, with the north firm to softer and southern areas firm to dearer.
“If a rebuild can begin in the south this spring, light cattle and breeder articles stand to rally in price the most. Generally, the southern market prices should be well supported across the board, as cattle supply tightens and demand strengthens to secure stock.”
Beef demand underpinning cattle market
While Mr Atkinson said the possibility dry weather could put pressure on the cattle market, strong beef demand was likely to keep underpinning prices.
He said he was expecting records to keep tumbling for the rest of this year. Including:
- National slaughter volumes in 2025 will reach their highest yearly volume at 9.3m, the most since 1978 when 10.158 million head were processed
- Australian grainfed turnoff in 2025 passes 3.25 million head
- Australian beef exports to the US to break 2015 record, over 415,000 tonnes shipped in 2025
- Monthly beef export volumes will break records again in H2, at least twice
- Annual slaughter to go 9.3 million head, the highest since 1978
- Production to break a new record in 2025, rising strongly above 2024’s result as slaughter volumes rise and carcass weights remain strong.