ARE we seeing more volatility in Australian cattle prices than we have before, is it just cattle prices that are experiencing this and what can producers do to mitigate the impacts?

These are the questions Rabobank senior proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird is currently researching by looking at cattle prices from the last 25 years.

“If you group years into five-year chunks and look at cattle prices from 2000 onwards, we have seen increasing volatility in the Australian cattle market,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“On a replacement heifer between 2000 and 2005 – and we had a dry period in there – the price movement might have been $1/kg, while the price movement we’ve seen between 2020 and 2025 is something like $5/kg.

“The volatility is growing – so do producers just have to wear it or is it something they can plan for? That’s what I want to find out,” Mr Gidley-Baird told a Brisbane Ekka gathering on Friday.

As part of his research  is exploring other commodities and overseas cattle and beef markets like the US.

“Are US cattle markets any different, given that they have a financial tool with futures pricing and the ability to hedge off some of that risk? Are they any different or have they seen increased volatility too?” Mr Gidley-Baird asked.

He said early indications showed price volatility was increasing across the board in different commodities and countries.

“Some theories are we have a much bigger market now and have access to a lot more information these days. Once upon a time you were only hearing about what was happening at your own saleyards, now you are hearing about Trump, about Brazil and perhaps that is influencing different decisions,” he said.

“So has it been the change in the way we do business that has fuelled it?”

Replacement heifer price distribution 2000-2024. (Supplied: Rabobank)

Mr Gidley-Baird said there had always been volatility in the market, and that was not always a bad thing.

“There will be people who remember the 1970s, when we saw huge volatility, but as we progressed into the 80s and 90s the peaks and troughs came closer together. But since we have gone into the 2000s it has increased again,” he said.

“But volatility will always be there, and some people make good money off it.

“We (the beef industry) are a seasonal beast, and there is no way we are going to completely remove seasonality out of our system, so it’s just a question of how we respond to the market in that sense.”

Next low in prices will be when it’s dry

Mr Gidley-Baird said he predicts the next major movement in the cattle market will be when it is dry across the country and producers are again forced to sell off cattle.

“If feeder steers are above 400c/kg at the moment, do we drop back to the lows that we saw before, or does it go lower if we are being forced to sell cattle off, that is what I would love to have the answers to,” he said.

• For more on price volatility see the JBS Great Southern report on Beef Central.