The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest forecast suggests the northern rainfall onset for the 2025–26 season is likely to be earlier than normal for most of Queensland and the Northern Territory, but later than usual for much of the west.

Across most of Queensland and the Northern Territory (except parts of its western interior), the northern rainfall onset is likely (60–80 percent chance) to be earlier than normal.

For small parts of Queensland’s central interior, this chance increases to greater than 80pc.

In much of the north and west of Western Australia, there is a 60–70pc chance of a later than normal northern rainfall onset.

Areas along the Western Australia–Northern Territory border have roughly equal chances of an earlier, later or near-normal northern rainfall onset.

Compared to the last edition, issued 31 July, the chance of an earlier than normal northern rainfall onset has increased over much of Queensland and the Northern Territory, particularly for northern and central Queensland. The chance of a later onset has also increased slightly in parts of the west.

The northern rainfall onset forecast gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after 1 September are likely to be earlier or later than their normal onset date (based on historical observations, 1981–2018).

Forecast accuracy for the northern rainfall onset tends to improve as the issuance date approaches September. Accuracy is generally moderate in June and increases to moderate to high in August. The final issue in late August is expected to have the highest accuracy of all forecasts issued this season.

This is the penultimate issue of the northern rainfall onset forecast for the 2025–26 season. The final forecast will be issued on 28 August.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology