AUSTRALIA’S beef exports in 2025 remain in track to smash all-time records, with August shipments continuing the recent boom.

Monthly shipment data released by DAFF this morning shows chilled and frozen exports to all destinations last month topped 135,570 tonnes – the second highest monthly volume on record, exceeded only by the previous month of July when numbers topped 150,000t.

In its September half-yearly Cattle Industry Projections update released on Monday, MLA forecast 2025 calendar year beef exports to reach 1.5 million tonnes shipped weight, as Australia continues to capitalise on global supply constraints caused by declining production and tariff impacts in key competitor markets such as the United States and Brazil.

Underpinning that, slaughter is forecast to rise 8.6pc this year to 9.02 million head, driven by robust cattle supply and somewhat expanded processing capacity.

With the US starting to progress into a herd rebuild phase and Brazil facing herd contraction following heavy slaughter and drought recovery, and prohibitive tariff levels for its own exports into the US, Australia is uniquely positioned to meet rising international demand over the next year or two.

To put the past two months’ export volume performance into perspective, Australian beef exports had never previously exceeded 130,000t before October last year.

August shipments were 13,700t or 11pc higher than August last year.

For the calendar year ended August 30, beef exports to all markets have now reached 988,223t, up an incredible 133,000t or almost 16pc on the same seven months last year. That number is all the more noteworthy, because of the flooding and cyclone-related delays in production and logistics that occurred earlier this year.

The calendar year record of 1.34 million tonnes set last year will now inevitably be exceeded this year – barring some major catastrophe like cyclones or disease outbreak. At current rates of production, it’s looking extremely likely that the 2025 calendar year will set a new record, somewhere above 1.45mt.

The recent boom in export tonnage is being driven by a perfect storm:

• 70-year low cattle numbers in the United States, which is powering demand for Australian beef not only in the US itself, but also into third countries in which product from Australia and the US traditionally competes
• Impacts from Trump tariffs on export suppliers like Brazil, with Brazilian beef now all but considered unviable in the US market under an additional 50pc tariff burden, on top of the existing rate of 24.6pc.
• Trade access issues into China for some export suppliers, especially the US
• Strong continued underlying demand for beef in general.

A key feature about the above record-setting pace is that it is being done with far fewer cattle than it was last time volume records were set (2014-15) when the processing industry was at full pace due to drought liquidation. Clearly heavier carcase weights and more grain feeding are more than offsetting larger slaughter numbers (head-count) seen a decade ago.

All key markets show strength, year-on-year

A key feature about the current record export trend is that it is not dependent on any one particular customer, but rather, substantial growth in all four largest customers (US, Japan, Korea, China) as well as progress in smaller customers like Indonesia and Canada.

While most first-tier export customers showed small declines in volume last month, this was coming off near record setting pace a month earlier.

Exports to the United States last month reached 40,750t down about 6pc from the near-record volume in July, but still historically high as US domestic beef production continues to dwindle.

For the calendar year to the end of August, our exports to the US have now reached 286,876t, up 52,000t or 27pc on the same time last year, again reflecting current low US production – especially for manufacturing beef, but increasingly, fed cattle as well.

The low current rate of cow slaughter being experienced in New Zealand was another factor in Australia’s surge in exports to the US last month, and throughout the first half of 2025. Click here to view earlier comments on this topic.

China has also surged this year as an Australian export customer this year, partly in the face of tariff and plant license issues with the United States, where some 400 US beef processors that previously held China access have been awaiting license renewal since February.

Australia’s exports to China in August reached 22,373t, down 22pc from the previous month (when tonnage reached its highest volume in three years) but 7200t or 47pc higher than August last year. For the calendar year eight months to the end of August, volume to China reached 182,507t, some 61,000t or 51pc higher than the same period last year.

Japan’s imports of Australian beef eased last month, reaching 19,406t, down 14pc on the previous month, but much the same as August last year. Eight month trade this year is now at 160,227t, down about 18,000t or 10pc on last year.

South Korea went against the broader trend, with August exports from Australia at 21,495t up 3pc on the previous month, but 3800t or 21pc gighher than August last year.

Calendar year to date, trade into Korea is now at 143,891t, up 16,400t or 14pc on last year.

Emerging markets

Emerging and developing export markets have followed a similar trend to the big-hitters noted above.

Indonesia remains a strong second-tier market, especially for frozen product, accounting for 5969t in August, down 8pc on the previous month, but 29pc behind the near record 8498t exported in Aughust last year. Year to date volume to Indo has reached 41,807t, down about 7000t or 15pc on last year.

Following a trend that’s emerged over the past 12 months, Canada remains a vigorous customer for Australian beef, taking another 5961t of Australian beef last month – up 1300t or 27pc on the previous month and 3500t or 143pc higher than August last year. Year to date volume has gone past 30,300t, almost 13,000t or 74pc higher than the same period last year.

The United Kingdom (see recent market summary), continues to show signs of growth, albeit off a very low base, some two years after the Free Trade Agreement was struck. August exports reached 1676t, more than three times the size of trade in August last year (554t). For the first eight months of 2025, volume has reached 10,345t, almost 6400t or 169pc higher than last year.

Total exports to the Middle East region last month were 3574t, much the same as July, while the calendar year to date tally has reached 24,833t, slightly higher than last year.