Rainfall is likely to be above average (60 percent to 80 percent chance) for most of the eastern half of Australia, with the strongest chances over Cape York Peninsula, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-term forecast for October to December.
For parts of western Tasmania, rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance).
Elsewhere, the forecast signal is weak, meaning roughly equal chances above or below average rainfall.
During October and November, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms and showers as the wet season advances.
Outlook video
Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia
Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60pc to over 80pc chance) across most of Australia.
For parts of coastal New South Wales, maximum temperatures have an equal likelihood of being above or below the average.
There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures1 (over 50pc chance) in parts of northern and south-eastern Australia, with the strongest chances over Tasmania (50pc to 70pc chance).
Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average (60pc to over 80pc chance) across Australia.
There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures1 (over 50pc chance) across most of the country, with the strongest chances across northern, central and eastern Australia (60pc to over 80pc chance).
1Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of October to December days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.
COMPARISON: Previous three-month forecast versus actual rainfall
June to August 2025 rainfall outlook:
June to August 2025 rainfall deciles:
Source: BOM
When you look at the previous BOM forecast map compared to what actually happened you really must wonder why we bother discussing BOM forecasts at all.