Click above to watch Beef Central’s interview with MLA’s regional market managers Murray Davis (Greater China), Paul da Silva (North America) and Travis Brown (Japan/Korea).

AUSTRALIA’S three biggest beef export markets are holding up well so far in 2026, but Brazil’s growing global footprint remains a key factor to watch as the year unfolds.

New export opportunities are also emerging, with demand from one North American market for premium Australian beef growing faster than expected.

These were among the key takeaways from Beef Central’s recent interview with Meat & Livestock Australia’s regional managers for China, North America and Japan/Korea during a visit to Brisbane.

After covering their early insights on how the Middle East conflict is affecting cosumer demand in their respective markets last week, in this article we cover their views on the current state of play for beef demand and the evolving competitive landscape for Australian beef in their markets. (You can watch the interviews in full in the video above)

‘Great deal of speculation’ over safeguard effect in China

In China, “volatile” was the descriptor MLA regional manager Murray Davis used to capture current market conditions.

Australian beef sales to China benefited last year from the United States losing access to the market, with Australian exports rising by about 40 percent to 300,000t for the calendar year.

However, early in 2026, Australian exports to China were confronted with new safeguard measures designed to protect China’s domestic cattle industry.

Australia will pay no tariffs on the first 205,000t of beef it exports to China this year, but then faces a new 55 percent safeguard tariff on any exports above that volume. Australia has already filled one third of its tariff-free allowance just one sixth of the way into the year.

Murray Davis

“There’s a great deal of speculation in the industry at the moment as to what effect that (safeguard measure) is going to have,” Mr Davis told us in Brisbane.

“Some people speculate that the trade may see a very, very accelerated rush to get product in early in the year before the 55 percent quota kicks in, followed by a dramatic slump in exports, and that may be the case.

“Other people are more optimistic and believe that the elasticity of demand will be quite high and that some people will continue to purchase it even at a 55pc premium over a zero tariff rate. That’s maybe optimistic, but at this stage, unfortunately, we really don’t know.”

Despite these market access challenges, fundamental demand for beef in China remains strong, with total annual beef consumption of 11 million tonnes well above domestic production of about seven million tonnes.

Tight economic conditions and a deflationary environment are suppressing consumption, making it difficult to maintain high prices for beef. However, long-term growth forecasts for China remain strong, he said.

“It’s still this massive market, and even with the safeguard measures that have been imposed, we are confident that even if the Chinese beef production does increase significantly, there’s still going to be a demand long term.”

North American demand defying broader market uncertainty

In North America, demand for red meat continues to defy broader economic uncertainty, MLA market manager Paul Da Silva said.

Paul da Silva

A strong consumer appetite for beef in the United States is drving strong imports, with Australian beef benefiting from reduced US herd numbers and larger domestic carcase sizes that are less suited to foodservice requirements.

Australia exported a record 508,000t of beef to the US last year and is currently tracking ahead of that pace again.

Emerging opportunity

Interestingly, he pointed to Canada as a quietly growing export opportunity for Australian beef, which enters the North American country tariff- and quota-free and is gaining traction as Canada looks to to diversify its beef import sources beyond the US.

“Canadians, generally, in all categories and so many facets of life, are looking for alternatives to American origin of anything, that goes for food as well.

“There’s also some conditions in the meat market that mean buyers are looking more widely for where else can they source product because their prices are high, and if they’re not buying anything out of the US, that leads them to look to somewhere like Australia.

“We have no tariff and no quota, so our product can go in there unhindered.

“So exporters who have the capacity to send beef or lamb to Canada. I would say that’s something to flag, if they haven’t already.”

Australia improves market share in Japan and Korea

In Japan and Korea, regional market manager Travis Brown said Australia has strengthened its competitive position, taking market share from the US, where exports are constrained by ongoing herd shortages.

Australian beef now holds more than 50pc of Japan’s imported beef market and has recently edged ahead of the US in Korea.

However, broader consumption headwinds remain, particularly in Japan, where per capita beef consumption has fallen to a 23-year low amid inflation, a weak yen and demographic decline.

Rising competition from Brazil’s growing global footprint

Across all regions, the presence of Brazil’s expanding global footprint is increasingly being felt, after it achieved recognition in June last year as being as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) without vaccination nationwide.

Brazil has been a significant supplier of beef to both the US and China, but like Australia, it also faces curtailed access to China this year under safeguard measures.

This means Brazil will now need to find alternative markets for about 400,000 tonnes of beef that would otherwise have gone to China.

The additional volume looking for new destinations will add to export competition across global markets, with no clear indication yet as to where it will land.

Brazil gaining access to Japan and Korea ‘imminent’

Of particular significance for Australia is the likelihood that Brazil will soon gain access to Japan and Korea – two of Australia’s most important and highest value beef export markets.

MLA regional manager Travis Brown said there have been recent government-to-government discussions, with teams of Japanese officials inspecting Brazilian meat plants.

“The sense and sentiment in the market is that Brazil probably will get access to the market,” Mr Brown said.

“The big question at the moment is in terms of what that looks like and when that might be.”

Australian advantages

While Australian beef will inevitably face greater new competition from South America in key markets, MLA managers expressed confidence that Australia remains well placed to compete.

Australia benefits from preferential tariff arrangements with Japan, meaning Brazilian beef would face a higher tariff rate if access is granted.

Mr Brown also highlighted the strength of long-standing relationships Australia’s beef industry has built in Japan over the past 55 years.

“What that means is that we now have multiple generations of Japanese families and consumers that have been brought up eating Aussie beef,” he said.

“Aussie beef has a very hard fought position in the market, in terms of it’s recognised for its quality, and then Australia is also very much recognised for its safe, secure production systems and all those kind of things.

“These are values that Japanese consumers put very highly on their food.”

North America regional manager Paul Da Silva agreed Australian beef is well placed to compete with South American product.

“We’re fortunate that the things that matter to a buyer, we’re strong on,” he said.

“Australian product is very strong, and we can compete in every section of the market, I would say our brand owners and our exporters are good enough at what they do to remain competitive and to know what their product offers that’s superior to a Brazilian or other imported product on the on the things that are relevant to their buyer.

“So there will always be competition. But we’re, we are genuine world leaders in what we produce, so we’re always going to be in a strong position to fight back.”