WAGYU feeder cattle prices have weathered the storm of uncertainty surrounding China’s imported beef quotas and the Middle East crisis better than many expected.

Beef Central has provided occasional updates on Wagyu feeders prices for the past 15 years, surveying large F1 to Fullblood Wagyu beef lotfeeders and supply chains across the key production centres in Queensland and New South Wales.

For the numbers set out below, we received pricing data from seven large Wagyu supply chains.

The January announcement that China will this year impose a quota limit on Australian beef imports of 205,000 tonnes – after which a hefty 55pc tariff will apply – was always likely to have a destabilising effect on the Wagyu sector.

Although no official data is available to support it, China is one of Australia’s primary Wagyu export beef markets, and any market curtailment was likely to damage prospects for the remainder of the year.

Some Wagyu supply chains spoken to for this report said there was a brief negative impact on Wagyu feeder prices soon after the quota news broke in January, but that quickly disappeared.

Long production horizons on Wagyu feeding mean that its almost impossible to speculate on international market conditions 12 or 14 months ahead, when cattle going on feedlot today are likely to close-out.

Well-established, large-scale supply chains told Beef Central this morning that well-bred F1 Wagyu x Angus feeder steers are currently trading around 520c/kg, with several quotes a little higher, up to 530-540c for ‘really attractive’ well-grown cattle of known carcase performance.

F4-Purebreds this week are trading between 540-570c (560-800c according to another source), and good Fullblood Wagyu feeders, anywhere from 600c/kg. Fullblood prices are largely dependant on prior marbling history, making them harder to price in a report like this.

Because of tough conditions in northern parts of NSW and southern Queensland, some supply chains are taking lighter Wagyu at backgrounder weights up to 340kg, with those lighter F1 steers fetching 450c/kg and heifers 390c.

What’s been apparent is just how stable Wagyu feeder prices have been, having risen a little late last year, to current levels, but changing relatively little over the past 12 months. Some trading took place in the high 400s during February, one contact said, but long-term suppliers of quality cattle were above those rates.

At least part of that is the ongoing trend towards supply chain ‘alignment’, rather than simply selling to the highest bidder, and fewer opportunistic F1 calves being produced out of Angus herds.

While there are small numbers of Wagyu traded on AuctionsPlus each year, volume is too thin, and tends towards lesser quality lines, to be of any value for this report.

For comparison with the prices written above, our previous Wagyu feeder price-check survey carried out in October quoted F1 feeder steers at 520-530c/kg.

This time last year, in March 2025, supply chains were reporting F1 feeders in a band from 410-460c/kg, with a figure around 430c/kg the mid-point. For higher content F4/Purebred cattle – the bulk of which are bred in Queensland – quotes a year ago ranged from 500-540c/kg liveweight.

Cost of production blowing-out

Based on quarterly industry feedlot survey data from the December quarter, longfed (+300 days) Wagyu-influenced cattle occupied 7.8 percent of all Australian cattle on feed, or about 126,000 head. That number was down about 16,000 head or 11pc on the same period a year earlier.

Export meat market pricing for most Wagyu finished cuts has been reasonably stable for the past 12 months, with the exception of Wagyu trimmings, which have experienced some growth.

Cost of production, however has blown out this year, with barley ex downs quoted at $405/t this week, up at least $60/t on a few months ago, and energy, transport and packaging costs all spiralling higher since the Iran conflict took hold five weeks ago.

Despite that, breakevens on Wagyu feeders tipping out from July onwards still looked reasonably positive, one large supply chain manager said. Some of that had come as a result of the ‘re-set’ in feeder cattle prices that had happened earlier.

One contact said he had already sold three quarters of his July-August production, at the same margin as recent meat sales where China is still a player.

“The difference is, the same beef that we were selling to say, three large Chinese customers, we are now selling to eight or nine smaller ones in other markets,” he said.

Other lotfeeders are currently pulling some Wagyu cattle from 350-day programs early, in order to process, pack and export to China before the quota window closes. In one case, DOF are reduced 50-60 days on some cattle, compromising carcase weights and marbling. The compromise on that might be 0.4 of an average marbling score, the source said.

Making that strategy challenging, however, is limitations on available killing space for the extras brought forward, for customers using service kills where space is already tight.

Finding homes for Wagyu beef after China quota fills

So how do Wagyu supply chains manage their turnoff over the next six months, once the China quota fills? What impact will the cessation of trade into China have on other Wagyu markets?

Responses from those we spoke to for this report were varied.

Most felt that a big part of the answer would be in how food service markets (restaurants, hotels etc) respond to current global uncertainty, and rising costs of living led by fuel prices.

“Or is there just a band of wealthy beef consumers who are just immune to such things?” one contact asked.

Firstly, some stakeholders anticipate that there will be some (albeit modest) Wagyu trade into China during the second half of the year, even with the 55pc tariff imposition. That’s most likely to be in higher end cuts heading into the five-star restaurant trade, where price can be ‘no object.’

Different market dynamic

Others made the point that unlike virtually every other Wagyu market in the world, the Chinese are not averse to ‘freezing down’ high quality chilled Wagyu beef for lengthy periods, for later use. Some speculated that this might be happening already.

This created a very different market dynamic than in most other Wagyu destinations in the world, one large supply chain manager said.

March beef exports to China (all beef – not just Wagyu) were the third highest month on record, at almost 33,000t. At least some of that may be intended for frozen stockpiles to be ‘fed out’ through to December 31, after the tariff is triggered.

Most contacts anticipated that come November/December, Australian Wagyu sales into China will spike again, as customers seek to secure product in bonded cold storage for release after the 2027 tariff is re-set on 1 January.

Supply chains moving early

However many large Wagyu supply chains are clearly acting now, rather than waiting until the China quota fills in the next couple of months, to find alternate homes for product that otherwise would have ended up in Shanghai or Beijing.

Clearly, one of the big relief valves remains the US beef market, where domestic beef production is now seriously compromised by a herd at 70-year lows.

However some Wagyu supply chains evidently believe there is a ‘ceiling’ on how much high quality Australian Wagyu beef can be shipped into the US later this year. For that reason they are seeking out markets elsewhere.

Some have cultivated more Wagyu trading relationships into the Middle East region, where logistics is currently challenging due to sea-freight restrictions. Airfreight shipments are helping, especially through alternate routs like Riadh and Oman, with at least one chartered aircraft delivery apparently taking place in recent weeks. Markets like Saudi have grown significantly, but some of that product is in turn being re-distriuted to neighbours like Kuwait, travelling overland.

Elsewhere, South Korea has re-emerged as a more significant export market for Australian higher quality grainfed beef, includinbg Wagyu. March beef shipments to Korea were among the highest on record at 25,500t, with Wagyu making up a larger portion.

Other less obvious destinations like Thailand and Singapore were also helping soak-up product that would previously have gone to China.

However the US continues to be seen as the big get-out of jail card for China default Wagyu beef in the back half of this year. One large Wagyu supply chain told beef Central it had done business over the past two months with seven of the top 50 US steakhouse restaurants, many of which were new customers.

Some F1 breeders returning to Angus?

Some discussions providing information for this report suggested that some Angus cow herds used for F1 production may this year revert to straight Angus breeding, as a ‘better bet’ under current uncertain global market conditions.

“One of the attractions in F1 breeding is that its possible to change course very quickly,” one supply chain manager said. “Heifers in some cases may continue to be mated to Wagyu bulls, while mature cows might go back to an Angus,” he said.

Backgrounding challenges

Several supply chains raised the issue of challenges to backgrounding Wagyu feeders this year, with large parts of northern NSW – especially across the New England and into southern parts of Queensland – now very dry and running out of stock water. In a typical year both regions play an important role in backgrounding lighter Wagyu steers, but will not make much contribution this winter, prospects suggest. Additionally many areas may miss an oats crop this year unless conditions turn around rapidly, meaning other arrangements may have to be made for backgrounding Wagyu feeders on grass further north or south.

During last year’s Australian Wagyu Association annual conference, analyst Simon Quilty continued to back his bold prediction made a year earlier that Australian cattle prices would double in the 24 months to April this year, with perhaps a 12-month lag on Wagyu prices over conventional cattle.

Conference delegates attending next week’s 2026 WagyuEdge conference in Brisbane – anticipating a record attendance somewhere around 900 stakeholders – will look on with interest as Mr Quilty updates his forecast.

• WagyuEdge starts in Brisbane next Wednesday, April 15, ending Friday, April 17.