AUSTRALIA’S February beef export volumes released this morning have included a figure of just over 27,000 tonnes for trade into China last month – taking many onlookers by surprise.

It was widely anticipated that a ‘really big figure’ might appear in February trading volume, on the back of the distortions associated with China’s 55 percent tariff announced back on  1 January, effective after Australia hits its 2026 quota of 205,000t.

The widespread view was that trade would explode as exporters and importers raced to complete shipments before the tariff triggers, as well as adding some ‘credit’ for 2026 volume in any quota management system that might emerge in 2027.

Instead, trade last month reached only 27,018t, on the lighter end of the expected scale. Despite that, the number was still large by February standards, being some 5400t or 26pc higher than last year, but China was still being serviced by much larger volumes of US beef this time a year ago.

One estimate has suggested Australia at the end of February has filled about 41pc of its 2026 China quota, with some now anticipating the Safeguard will trigger during May.

Several explanations have been put forward over China trade last month by contacts in the export trade.

The first is that volume shipped during February reflected many Queensland plants still getting back to normal production, and with a 20-day transit to market, January and February shipments mostly reflected deals negotiated back as far as November and December – before everything ‘hit the fan.’

“March will be the month to look for a real change in volume into China,” a regular export beef trader contact said. “It will definitely be bigger, but by how much is anybody’s guess,” he said.

Another export trade source interpreted the February result somewhat differently – although admitting surprise at how moderate the figure was.

“I think what’s happened has been that some beef processors have been so nervous about where all this (China quota/tariff) is going to go, that they have made decisions to pull the trade up earlier, and go elsewhere,” the trader said.

“That may have kept a lid on February volumes.”

“The China announcement has made them look at what they are doing and where they’re selling their meat. They’ve decided they are too relient on China and need to make decisions before it all blows up, and are already starting to shift that meat elsewhere. They are pre-empting what’s coming in a few months, and are seeking relationships in other markets.”

“It’s looking increasingly unlikely that the Australian government will undertake any form of quota management scheme this year, so therefore they are moving early,” the trader said.

“It will only get more intense from here on, until it triggers. They’re saying, ‘There’s a fundamental shortage of beef across the world – let’s not wait until D-Day, but be more pro-active and start to divert some of this meat and finding new channels before it happens’.”

Record export volume for February

Overall, Australia’s February beef trade surged strongly, partly due to the return to more normal production levels after Christmas/New Year plant closures.

Total export volume last month reached 130,084 tonnes, the largest February number on record, and 12,500t or 11pc higher than February last year – and 2025 was the highest volume year on record.

February produced some very large national weekly slaughter numbers, with the week ending 8 February the second largest reported in five years, at 158,528 head of adult cattle.

Most key export markets showed strong volume growth growth, year-on-year.

The United States last month took 39,951t, almost 5000t or 14pc higher than February last year, as the US beef production system continues to operate in considerable deficit.

February trade into the US was the highest seen since October, but nowhere neat the 51,000t single-month record set a year earlier.

Trade into Japan last month reached 20,026t, more than 25pc higher than January and only a fraction under trade seen in February last year, as Japan approaches the high-demand Golden Week holiday period (starting 29 April this year).

South Korea took 18,510t of Australian beef last month, about 4pc higher year-on-year, also reflecting the slow-down in export supply out of the US.

One of the poorest performers last month was Indonesia, where volume collapsed from more than 5000t in February last year to just 1427t last month, representing a 72pc decline.

The single reason for the dramatic change in trade was Indonesia’s decision to greatly limit import permits for Australian beef, while dramatically expanding permits for Brazilian product.

Indonesia has been an expanding market for Australian frozen and chilled beef in recent years, ranking as our fifth largest customer in 2025, taking 66,500t. However it is difficult to see that continuing in 2026 under the current import permit structure.

Also likely to come under some jeopardy in coming months will be trade into the Middle East region, where the main customers (Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, Yemen and Jordan) collectively last year took 40,522t of Aussie beef.

Weekend events in Iran will make trade access challenging during March, at least, and for an indeterminant period afterwards.

Last month’s tonnage into the Middle East region reached almost 3100t, up about 20pc on the same period last year.

European Union and United Kingdom beef export trade was sold last month, with the UK taking 1671t, up 40pc from the previous month and more than double volumes seen in February last year.

In the absence of any tangible progress in the Free Trade Agreement negotiation, the European Union took just 597t of Australian beef last month, barely 20t more than in February last year.

Emerging markets like the Philippines (2665t last month), Thailand (896t), Singapore (1427t) and Malaysia (634t) showed steady trends compared with February last year.